What's inside the Shadow Case?

The Shadow Case contains 16 weapon skins (Mil-Spec, Restricted, Classified, and Covert rarities) plus 13 rare special items (knives or gloves) that drop at the ★ tier.

What are the chances of getting a knife from the Shadow Case?

Rare Special Items (knives or gloves) drop at approximately 0.26% per unbox — roughly 1 in 384 cases. Each case opening uses Valve's published rates: 79.92% Mil-Spec, 15.98% Restricted, 3.2% Classified, 0.64% Covert, 0.26% Rare Special Item.

How rare is the Shadow Case?

Based on the latest CS:STONKS estimates (2026-05-18), the Shadow Case ranks #13 of 34 cases by remaining circulating supply, with roughly 16,343,915 unopened cases left.

CS2 Weapon Case

Shadow Case

Base Gradedefindex 4138View on Steam Market

Lowest supply

16M

Remaining

16M

Dropped

55M

Unboxed

39M

Live Steam Market

Open listing

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Price history

What’s inside

Every skin this case can drop, grouped by rarity tier.

16 skins13 rare ★

Mil-Spec Grade· 7

Restricted· 4

Classified· 3

Covert· 2

Special Items (★)· 13

Knives or gloves. Each one drops at the rare ~0.26% tier.

Drop probability

Every CS2 weapon case uses the same published drop rates. Within each rarity tier, the specific skin is rolled uniformly across the items in that tier.

Rarity	Per unbox	Notes
Mil-Spec (Blue)	79.92%	Common skins — most unboxes land here.
Restricted (Purple)	15.98%	Mid-tier skins. ~1 in 6 unboxes.
Classified (Pink)	3.2%	Rare skins. ~1 in 31 unboxes.
Covert (Red)	0.64%	Very rare skins. ~1 in 156 unboxes.
Rare Special Item (★)	0.26%	Knives or gloves. ~1 in 384 unboxes (≈0.26%).

Published rates apply to every standard CS2 weapon case. Souvenir packages and operation drop pools differ.

Supply context

The Shadow Case ranks #13-rarest of 34 cases by current circulating supply (estimate: 16,343,915). See the full sortable supply list to compare every case head-to-head. Estimates sourced from CS:STONKS, last refreshed 2026-05-18.

Cases with similar supply

Neighbouring cases by remaining circulation rank.